Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Presidential Moneyline

Red Elephant believes that the Republican Party needs to play small ball and rebuild the party from the bottom up. However, presidential elections wait for nobody and the GOP will need to put forward a nominee in 2012. Red Elephant believes it should be a person who represents the platform issues that will make the GOP relevant again. That said, the Republican Party bench is bare, but here are some potential players to watch and Red Elephant’s odds on the primary contest. Red Elephant has added President Obama for measurement.*

Obama -300 or 1/3
A hint of flagging popularity starting in Ohio. All hands on deck to get healthcare reform makes passage critical for his POTUS future. An encompassing legislative agenda could give him the best outcome of all; a GOP majority in the House – doubtful given the disarray of the GOP.

NEW John Thune
+3000 or 30/1
The capable Senator from South Dakota exhibited the kind of crusade talk in a Christianity Today interview in 2005 that makes him seem a little kooky.

NEW Condoleeze Rice
+6000 or 60/1
Not sure even Republican primary voters will tolerate her tanks in their streets brand of foreign policy if she decides to make a go of it.

NEW Rick Perry
+3000 or 30/1
A solid record as Texas Governor – hmmm, heard that before – makes him viable. Succession nonsense did not help constructively define him to American voters.

NEW Mitch Daniels
+2500 or 25/1
Budget acumen in Bush’s OMB and as a governor gives him a robust reputation for fiscal responsibility.

NEW Linda Lingle
+5000 or 50/1
An interesting longshot given her locale and moderate GOP politics. Her record of turning budget deficits into surpluses and underdog victory at the polls in 2002 makes her appealing to Red Elephant.

NEW Alan Keyes
+7000 or 70/1
Why not, he tried to beat Obama in Illinois and probably needs the matching funds to keep him clothed, fed and sheltered.

+600 or 6/1
A recent Rasmussen survey giving him a favorable to unfavorable rating of 34:37 drop his odds, for now. RE still convinced Iowans and Granite Staters will come to see him as the future.


+1200 or 12/1
With a favorable to unfavorable rating of 73:19 plus his bank account and his odds improve. Uncomfortable bigoted questions about underwear still loom.


+2000 or 20/1
A sunny, healthy, youthful disposition makes him appealing, but untested nationally and shares a fundraising base with the Bush family. What isn’t known about him…yet?


+2500 or 25/1
Rasmussen survey reveals a weak 38:33 favorable to unfavorable rating among GOPers and hurt his moneyline.


+800 or 8/1
She may become the cult of personality she desperately desires, but odds dropping like a kisaut. How long until the SARAH! pilot?


+1400 or 14/1
Keeping up the Daily Show dialogue with Jon Stewart could make him chic outside of the base. Fox helps keep him in the conversation.


+1500 or 15/1
A brilliant but wandering mind. Lots of base appeal but smacks of GOP values hypocrisy and has the feel of an outdated calendar.

Jeb Bush

+160 or 8/5
No GOP bench gives him a huge advantage – despite the last name. As Eddie Murphy said in The Distinguished Gentleman, “Go with the name you know.”

NEW Jindal

+2200 or 30/1
Where is he on healthcare? He's got the credibiity to make a play for himself on this issue.


+2500 or 25/1
The country has probably had enough of the TX cheerleader type to make her a serious candidate, but she stands out as the only woman being mentioned.


+20,000 or 200/1
Too bad he’s “Jewish” and an “Independent” from New York City. Not sure which is more damning in a GOP primary.


+2000 or 20/1
Sterling credentials and temperament if he’d sacrifice himself in service to his country one more time. The GOP would have to substantially change for him to run.


+4000 or 40/1
2016 seems more likely if he wins the gubernatorial contest in OH in ’10.

*Calculated from electoral performance, survey data, media savvy and fundraising potential.

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