Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Presidential Moneyline

Red Elephant believes that the Republican Party needs to play small ball and rebuild the party from the bottom up. However, presidential elections wait for nobody and the GOP will need to put forward a nominee in 2012. Red Elephant believes it should be a person who represents the platform issues that will make the GOP relevant again. That said, the Republican Party bench is bare, but here are some potential players to watch and Red Elephant’s odds on the primary contest. Red Elephant has added President Obama for measurement.*

Obama (re-elect)
-300 or 1/3
Strong favorable rating and master of candid rhetoric. An encompassing legislative agenda could give him the best outcome of all; a GOP majority in the House – doubtful given the disarray of the GOP.

+500 or 5/1
Don’t let the accent fool you – the best pol on the GOP bench. He is a real contender who just took over the Republican Governors Assoc. and is already traveling IA and NH.

+1200 or 12/1
Mormonism and a strange debate style will continue to be a drag on his performance, but his bank account won’t.

+2000 or 20/1
A sunny, healthy, youthful disposition makes him appealing, but untested nationally and shares a fundraising base with the Bush family. What isn’t known about him…yet?

+2000 or 20/1
Sanford affair gives him more space to define himself as the future of the GOP. Lousy hair, needs a stylist.

NEW Sanford
+10,000 or 100/1
Proclaiming oneself a man of faith while cheating on the wife is a recipe for electoral implosion, he’ll tell you as much. Not much longer for the Moneyline with an SC AG investigation looming and confirmation he's a serial marital line crosser.

+10,000 or 100/1
See Sanford and add a pinch of strange allegation of blackmail that doesn’t make his adultery story go away.

NEW Palin
+5000 or 50/1
Her resignation speech, setting, planning and timing speak for themselves: c.r.a.z.y!

+1400 or 14/1
Keeping up the Daily Show dialogue with Jon Stewart could make him chic outside of the base. Fox helps keep him in the conversation.

+1500 or 15/1
A brilliant but wandering mind. Lots of base appeal but smacks of GOP values hypocrisy and has the feel of an outdated calendar.

Jeb Bush
+160 or 8/5
No GOP bench gives him a huge advantage – despite the last name. As Eddie Murphy said in The Distinguished Gentleman, “Go with the name you know.”

+2200 or 22/1
Highly intelligent but no media presence coming from a state that does not give him much fundraising prowess. Does himself no favors by appearing on tv.

+2500 or 25/1
The country has probably had enough of the TX cheerleader type to make her a serious candidate, but she stands out as the only woman being mentioned.

+20,000 or 200/1
Too bad he’s “Jewish” and an “Independent” from New York City. Not sure which is more damning in a GOP primary.

+5000 or 50/1
Sterling credentials and temperament if he’d sacrifice himself in service to his country one more time. The GOP would have to substantially change for him to run.

+5000 or 50/1
2016 seems more likely if he wins the gubernatorial contest in OH in ’10.

*Calculated from electoral performance, survey data, media savvy and fundraising potential.

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