Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Election Moneyline May 18 Primaries

With it being Election Day in Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky (oh, and Oregon) it is time for some odds-making:

Pennsylvania: Democratic Senate Primary
Senator Arlen Specter v. Rep. Joe Sestak
Sestak 3:5
Most likely Sestak's pollster called him in the first week of May and told him he was going to win. The contest has been trending Sestak since February, although is dead-even going into today.  Specter's rationale for switching parties, namely he did not see himself winning a GOP primary, smacks of the stuff that makes people dislike Washington politicians. While there are no silver bullets in political campaigns, this year the magic bullet is anti-incumbency.

Kentucky GOP Senate Primary
Sec. of State Trey Grayson v. Dr. Rand Paul
Paul 1:5
Bad omen for those in the GOP seeking moderation as the Tea Party favorite Paul is set to trounce the establishment candidate. Paul's likely win can be credited to anti-incumbency fervor and is a slap to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who hand-picked Grayson.

Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary
Sen. Blanche Lincoln v. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter
Lincoln 3:2
Halter is playing for a run-off as there are three candidates in this contest (businessman D.C. Morrison is polling around 6 percent) and Lincoln is at 46 percent, Halter in the high 30's.  If recent polling is correct and there is 11 percent undecided and those voters break as they should, Lincoln squeeks by with slightly more than 50 percent thus avoiding a run-off with Halter.