Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Presidential Moneyline

Red Elephant believes that the Republican Party needs to play small ball and rebuild the party from the bottom up. However, presidential elections wait for nobody and the GOP will need to put forward a nominee in 2012. Red Elephant believes it should be a person who represents the platform issues that will make the GOP relevant again. That said, the Republican Party bench is bare, but here are some potential players to watch and Red Elephant’s odds on the primary contest. Red Elephant has added President Obama for measurement.*

NEW Obama
-300 or 1/3
Still strong after all these months, although a hint of flagging popularity. An encompassing legislative agenda could give him the best outcome of all; a GOP majority in the House – doubtful given the disarray of the GOP.

NEW Barbour
+600 or 6/1
A recent Rasmussen survey of likely GOP voters giving him a favorable to unfavorable rating of 34:37 drop his odds, for now. RE still convinced Iowans and Granite Staters will come to see him as the future.

NEW Romney
+1000 or 1o/1
With a favorable to unfavorable rating of 73:19 plus his bank account and his odds improve. Uncomfortable bigoted questions about underwear still loom.

+2000 or 20/1
A sunny, healthy, youthful disposition makes him appealing, but untested nationally and shares a fundraising base with the Bush family. What isn’t known about him…yet?

NEW Pawlenty
+2500 or 25/1
Rasmussen survey reveals a weak 38:33 favorable to unfavorable rating among GOPers and hurt his moneyline.

NEW Sanford
+10,000 or 100/1
Censura means cya; last time on the Moneyline.

NEW Ensign
+10,000 or 100/1
Handwritten note to his girlfriend is handwriting on the wall for his political ambitions. No more for the Moneyline.

NEW Palin
+5000 or 50/1
She may become the cult of personality she desperately desires, but odds dropping like a uyabak. How long until SARAH! the pilot?


+1400 or 14/1
Keeping up the Daily Show dialogue with Jon Stewart could make him chic outside of the base. Fox helps keep him in the conversation.

+1500 or 15/1
A brilliant but wandering mind. Lots of base appeal but smacks of GOP values hypocrisy and has the feel of an outdated calendar.

Jeb Bush

+160 or 8/5
No GOP bench gives him a huge advantage – despite the last name. As Eddie Murphy said in The Distinguished Gentleman, “Go with the name you know.”

Jindal+2200 or 22/1
Highly intelligent but no media presence coming from a state that does not give him much fundraising prowess. Does himself no favors by appearing on tv.

+2500 or 25/1
The country has probably had enough of the TX cheerleader type to make her a serious candidate, but with Palin gone she gets more interesting.


+20,000 or 200/1
Too bad he’s “Jewish” and an “Independent” from New York City. Not sure which is more damning in a GOP primary.

+2000 or 20/1
Sterling credentials and temperament if he’d sacrifice himself in service to his country one more time. The GOP would have to substantially change for him to run.


+4000 or 40/1
2016 seems more likely if he wins the gubernatorial contest in OH in ’10.

*Calculated from electoral performance, survey data, media savvy and fundraising potential.

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