Thursday, November 19, 2009

Election Moneyline Gubernatorial OPENS

With the midterm 2010 election cycle looming as well as the 2010 Census, it is worth assessing the odds of the OPEN gubernatorial election contests.

Alabama: Should be a GOP advantage, but if the polarizing Judge Roy Moore of Ten Commandment fame is the nominee it could become a toss-up.
1-5 Republican

California: Should be a Democratic win judging by President Obama’s 61% margin in ’08, but the money advantage goes to the wealthy Republican primary candidates (except for Tom Campbell). If Jerry Brown wins the election will he date Linda Ronstadt again (50-1)?
3-2 Democrat

Connecticut: With popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell not seeking re-election this contest slightly favors the Democrats. Will feature the return of Ned Lamont who slayed Sen. Joe Lieberman only to discover Lieberman can’t die.
6-5 Democrat

Florida: Republican primaries for governor and senator will make Florida a political hot spot going into August. This is likely to be a battle between State AG Bill McCollum and FL CEO Alex Sink.
1-1 No Favorite

Georgia: A crowded field in both primaries the state likely goes GOP as it did for John McCain in ’08 by 52%
1-2 Republican

Hawaii: A probably Democratic pick-up in a contest featuring HI political fixture Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie against Lt. Gov. James Aiona. However, if Gov. Lingle could win the state for the GOP then her running mate has a chance.
3-2 Democrat

Kansas: Senator Sam Brownback wants to be in charge and is probably the next governor.
1-5 Republican

Maine: A crowded primary field on both sides, but all for Republican naught as it is a solidly Democratic state although the angry lobstermen vote could be a factor that makes it more competitive than anticipated.
1-5 Democrat

Michigan: Obama won the state with 57% but the GOP can still mount a good challenge in this relentlessly economic disaster of a state that has been a gold mine for Michael Moore.
1-1 No Favorite

Minnesota: There hasn’t been a Democratic governor here since 1990, but crowded primary fields don’t make the picture any clearer.
1-1 No Favorite

New Mexico: Democratic Governor Diane Denish is the odds on favorite. Daughter of former 1970 gubernatorial candidate Jack Daniels, her chances are sobering for the GOP.
1-5 Democrat

Any state where McCain won in ’08 with 66% should elect a GOP governor, making this a likely GOP pick-up.
1-2 Republican

Oregon: There hasn’t been a Republican governor since a gallon on gas cost $0.89 and Culture Club was a chart topper.
1-5 Democrat

Pennsylvania: The GOP has strong potential nominees in Rep. Jim Gerlach and State AG Tom Corbett, but could also feature Rick Santorum (because the GOP really needs him back in action?).
1-1 No Favorite

Rhode Island: Democratic State Treasurer Frank Caprio is the favorite, but State AG Patrick Lynch (of the Station nightclub fire and Sherwin Williams lead paint prosecutions fame) will mount a strong primary challenge.
1-2 Democrat

South Carolina: Unclear if Mark Sanford’s “Appalachian Trail” behavior taints the GOP, but the advantage is Republican.
2-5 Republican

South Dakota: McCain only won the state in ’08 with 53%, but Republican have lived in the governor’s mansion since “What you talkin’ ‘bout Willis!” was a cool thing to say.
1-5 Republican

Tennessee: A likely Republican pick-up that features a GOP primary that will be between Rep. Zack Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.
1-2 Republican

Wisconsin: No stand-out Democratic primary candidates, but the Republican primary features Mark Neumann who has run competitively statewide and has something to prove.
1-1 No Favorite

Wyoming: Unless Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal seeks to overturn the state’s term limit law this leans toward a GOP pick-up.
1-5 Democrat with Gov. Freudenthal
2-5 Republican without Gov. Freudenthal

Vermont: This should be a Democratic stronghold, but Republican Governor Jim Douglas has defied the odds and his Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is popular and appealing and even makes his own maple syrup.
3-2 Democrat

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